The adaptive Lasso estimator of AR(p) time series with applications to INAR(p) and Hawkes processes

We study the consistency and the oracle properties of the adaptive Lasso estimator for the coefficients of a linear AR(p) time series with a strictly stationary white noise (not necessarily described by i.i.d. r.v.'s). We apply the results to INAR(p) time series and to the non-parametric inference of the fertility function of a Hawkes point process. We present some numerical simulations to emphasize the advantages of the proposed procedure with respect to more classical ones and finally we apply it to a set of epidemiological data